Trump forces India’s hand on Russian oil imports

New Delhi is edging toward cutting Russian oil imports under U.S. pressure

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India is quietly preparing to cut its imports of Russian oil under pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump, even as Prime Minister Narendra Modi insists on projecting strength and independence at home.

The clash is simple: Washington wants New Delhi to scale back its reliance on discounted Russian crude, a lucrative lifeline for Moscow. Modi, meanwhile, wants to keep India’s energy bills low and his strongman image intact. The result is a delicate balancing act—public defiance paired with private concessions.

Trump’s pressure campaign has been relentless. When New Delhi refused to fall in line, he slapped a 50 per cent tariff on Indian goods, punishment for buying Russian crude. Behind the bluster, the strategy is clear: cut off Putin’s oil revenue and tighten the screws on the Kremlin’s war machine. India matters here because it is the world’s third-largest oil importer, and any change in its buying habits can shake global markets.

For India, the economics are irresistible. Russian oil went from about 30 million barrels in 2021-22 to more than 638 million barrels in 2024-25. Discounts averaging 10 to 14 per cent saved the country about $5 billion a year, roughly three to four per cent of its crude import bill. At Reliance’s Jamnagar refinery in Gujarat, the world’s largest refining complex, Russia’s share of supply jumped from three per cent in 2021 to nearly 50 per cent today.

The exports are even more awkward. The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), a global independent think tank that monitors energy and pollution flows, reports Jamnagar shipped $85.9 billion worth of refined products abroad since 2022, with 42 per cent sent to countries sanctioning Russia. That circular trade has not gone unnoticed in Washington.

For Canadians, the stakes may seem distant, but oil is priced globally. When India shifts its demand, or Russia loses a customer, ripple effects can hit Canadian consumers at the pump and throughout the economy. U.S. sanctions strategy, in other words, does not stay confined to Washington and Moscow; it reaches into household budgets from Halifax to Victoria.

Trump has made the message plain: cut Russian oil, or forget about a trade pact to ease tariffs. Sources told Reuters that Indian refiners are now planning a gradual reduction in Russian purchases. But Modi is determined not to look like he’s caving to American coercion.

Last week Trump told reporters Modi had privately promised to end Russian imports “within a short period of time.” He added: “You know, you can’t do it immediately. It’s a little bit of a process, but the process is going to be over with soon.” Trump’s stance is consistent with the broader Western push to choke off Moscow’s revenues after the invasion of Ukraine, where sanctions have made oil sales Russia’s last major lifeline.

India, however, contradicted Trump’s statement on any pledge by Modi to reduce crude imports from Russia. Randhir Jaiswal, spokesperson for India’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, told reporters during a weekly media briefing on Thursday that he was unaware of a conversation between Trump and Modi the previous day.

The split in public messaging underlines the fragility of the relationship. Former U.S. and Indian officials said the divide reflects Trump’s eagerness to declare a diplomatic victory and ratchet up pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin, while Modi is stuck in the middle of two giants.

Syed Akbaruddin, India’s former ambassador to the United Nations, described it as “classic pressure politics” from Trump. “Delhi’s vague response is deliberate. It’s a reminder that strategic autonomy rather than alignment guides its energy choices,” he told Politico. He also conceded, “India may adjust volumes quietly, but it will not be seen as bowing to U.S. demands. The message is clear: cooperation, yes; coercion no.”

Mark Linscott, a former negotiator for the U.S. Trade Representative’s Office who was involved in talks with India during Trump’s first term, described it as a “delicate dance” between “the President’s desire to go public and India’s desire to keep any understanding behind the scenes, as long as they can get the (currrent) 25 per cent penalty tariff to go away and pave the way for a trade deal,” Politico reported.

The reality is that New Delhi is giving in to Washington’s pressure while straining to project defiance. That may be smart diplomacy, but it also exposes India’s limits. For all of Modi’s talk of independence, India’s energy choices still bend under the weight of American power.

Toronto-based Rashid Husain Syed is a highly regarded analyst specializing in energy and politics, particularly in the Middle East. In addition to his contributions to local and international newspapers, Rashid frequently lends his expertise as a speaker at global conferences. Organizations such as the Department of Energy in Washington and the International Energy Agency in Paris have sought his insights on global energy matters.